Predictions for 2025: a bleak outlook but with glimmers of light and hope

The world is not in good shape. Conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East and Sudan rage on, the COP-29 meeting in Azerbaijan did little to tackle climate change, and the return of a tariff-wielding Trump to the White House threatens to create more uncertainty for international business. Like the dark wintry expanse of night that much of the northern hemisphere experiences at this time of year, the outlook for 2025 seems fairly bleak.

But if we look hard enough, we can find some glimmers of light and hope, especially if we see the current worldwide situation less as a state but rather as a paradox.

“The global crises we face today present a setback in many respects, but they can also act as a facilitator for remarkable entrepreneurial responses from those very individuals and communities affected most severely,” says Katrin Smolka, Associate Professor of Entrepreneurship and Innovation.

Dr Smolka says there are many impressive examples around the world of “resourceful and resilient individuals taking charge of their lives” and – together with their communities – “turning crisis into opportunity”.

One of these examples, she says, can be found among the Rohingya refugees who, after fleeing brutal persecution in their native Myanmar, are setting up business ventures in the vast Kutupalong refugee camp in Bangladesh that has become their home.

Dr Smolka has been part of an entrepreneurial training initiative that has the backing of Warwick Business School to help these exiles set up their own businesses.  

“We were looking at how to build an entrepreneurial mindset and a spirit of self-reliance amongst the displaced Rohingya people despite all the trauma they have experienced in the past and the obstacles they face living in the world’s largest refugee camp,” says Dr Smolka. 

“Our work offering training to the Rohingyas has shown how individuals with minimal resources can benefit by starting with their available means, often sparse, and by working with others to create opportunities,” she says.

Aside from refugee environments, there have also been precedents of turning crisis into opportunity in post-war zones, Dr Smolka says. One of these is the inspirational story of Professor Slavica Singer, who, finding herself as one of the last people left in Osijek – a small town in eastern Croatia – during the invasion of the Yugoslav army in the early 1990s, started exploring ways to rebuild her country once the bombing and the fighting ended.

As the fighting continued, she was already looking to build an entrepreneurial mindset in Croatia that would bring enduring benefits when peace finally arrived.

The result was the establishment of a centre for entrepreneurship allied to the university in Osijek, which was soon producing entrepreneurship programmes for the generation of students and graduates emerging from the war.  

What will 2025 bring for sustainability?

Fast-forward thirty years and one of the biggest challenges Croatia is facing is climate change. Like its Mediterranean neighbours it spent the summer of 2024 battling wildfires as the region continued to bear the brunt of the climate crisis.

“Latest scientific assessments of our progress on climate change and the UN SDGs suggest the world is not on track to meet its own ambitions and commitments, and, coupled with that, significant political and economic uncertainty means business leaders will have to navigate a challenging business environment in 2025,” says Frederik Dahlmann, Associate Professor of Strategy and Sustainability.

As a result, he believes there are two potential outcomes for sustainability.  

The first one aligns with the gloomy outlook that many will hold for 2025 – that business leaders will end up pursuing the path of least resistance, cutting back climate change and other ESG commitments to the bare minimum of legal compliance.    

But the second one points to something more positive.

“The second option is that businesses recognise and act on the various interconnected issues by embracing their roles as leaders for transformative change,” Dr Dahlmann says.

“Driven by a renewed sense of organisational purpose, such businesses will intensify their focus on developing regenerative innovation through their products, services and business models and by working with their communities and partners.

“Connecting the dots between societal and employee health and well-being, environmental conservation and restoration, and the responsible adoption of digital innovation, 2025 could be the year businesses find new and effective ways of contributing to society by creating value for all their stakeholders.”

Innovations in business, healthcare and well-being

Elsewhere, too, in all sorts of spheres, there may be flickers of light in the darkness. In the area of artificial intelligence, for example, the increased automation and the greater use of data will lead to increased efficiency for many companies, says Pietro Micheli, Professor of Business Performance and Innovation. This is despite the rather disappointing returns on investment that the employment of AI has brought so far.

“Greater investments in artificial intelligence, especially GenAI, will result in enhanced capabilities and processes, including creativity in product and service development, augmentation of human skills, and personalised customer services,” he says.

In the field of healthcare, too, we are set to see improvements. “Advanced behavioural science is poised to play a significant role in shaping societal trends and transforming the health sector, particularly concerning the ageing population,” says Ivo Vlaev, Professor of Behavioural Science.

“By integrating sophisticated theories and methodologies from psychology, neuroscience, and sociology, we can develop nuanced interventions that promote healthy ageing and enhance the quality of life for older adults.”

He points to one example in many where the employment of behavioural insights in south London is reducing the stigma associated with mental health issues and the lack of awareness of treatments for these issues available for older adults in the area. 

But mental health will not only be seen as the responsibility of healthcare organisations. HR leaders will also be taking up the mantle in 2025 as they realise that employee well-being is an essential ingredient for productivity, says Vicki Belt, Deputy Director of Impact and Engagement at Warwick Business School’s Enterprise Research Centre.

“We will see mental health and wellbeing support start to move from being something that is offered to individuals at times of crisis to being seen as an essential component of management strategy,” she says.

In other words, even in the gloomy political and economic landscape that the world finds itself in, there are points of light. There are people trying to make good things happen.

“Even in times of crisis, do not underestimate the agency that individuals and communities can have and are using to turn lemons into lemonade,” says Dr Smolka.

“The entrepreneurial mindset is all about individuals working with what they have, leveraging social networks in their communities and beyond, and creating opportunities in seemingly hopeless situations, and I am confident that we will see plentiful examples of this mindset brought into play in 2025.”

If other examples of ambition and vision are anything to go by, that might well hold for other fields of endeavour too.

Research at Warwick Business School is undertaken in partnership with policy and practice to ensure both relevance and practical application. 

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