a black woman looks at a cocoa plant in Africa

Scrambled supply chains: Easter egg prices are rising because of problems in the cocoa farming industry

As Easter approaches consumers are facing higher-than-usual prices for chocolate, a direct consequence of a deepening crisis in the global cocoa supply chain.

According to Ghadafi Razak, Houlden Fellow in the Operations Group at Warwick Business School, the soaring prices are a result of multiple disruptions in cocoa production, particularly in key growing regions of West Africa.

Dr Razak, who specialises in African supply chains, highlights the significant factors contributing to the cocoa shortage.

"West Africa, which accounts for more than 70 per cent of global cocoa production, has long struggled with low productivity due to poor climate conditions and outbreaks of pests and disease," said Dr Razak.

"However, the recent decline in cocoa output, particularly in Ghana, is largely driven by illegal mining activities, ageing trees and waning farmer motivation."

The cocoa sector in Ghana has been hit hard by illegal gold mining, known locally as 'galamsey', which has led to the destruction of large swathes of cocoa farm land.

Many farmers, enticed by quick profits, have sold their land to miners or even ventured into illegal mining themselves. Additionally, a significant number of cocoa trees are reaching the end of their productive lives and need to be replaced with higher-yielding varieties.

"The challenge is further compounded by the difficulty of replacing destroyed cocoa farms due to stricter anti-deforestation regulations," said Dr Razak.

"Newly planted cocoa trees take four to six years to mature and start producing pods, meaning that even if new farms are established, they won’t contribute to supply for several years. With stockpile depletion in 2024, the global cocoa market is facing a significant vulnerability, particularly during high-demand periods like Easter."

Supply chain problems for chocolate Easter eggs

The ongoing shortages and the depletion of cocoa reserves are expected to have long-term effects on global cocoa prices.

"This trend of rising prices is likely to continue for the foreseeable future," said Dr Razak. "The industry must focus on sustainable practices and investment in new farming technologies to stabilise supply and mitigate further price increases."

With the price of cocoa rising and supply becoming more unpredictable, Easter 2025 is shaping up to be one of the most expensive in recent years for the chocolate industry and consumers alike.

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Ghadafi Razak is a Houlden Fellow at Warwick Business School and teaches Operations Management on the Undergraduate programme. He also lectures on Customer Value Management on the MSc Management.

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